The Substitution Effect of Mobile Games on Console Games: An Empirical Analysis of the Japanese Video Game Industry

In this paper, we discuss the substitution effects between mobile games and console games. We estimate such effects by a fixed-effect regression with instrumental variables using panel data of about 100,000 observations. The results showed that the substitution effects of playing smart devices on 3DS, Wii, and PSP were recognizable, but did not have significant effects on PS3, and the substitution effects on PSP were very small. Therefore, mobile games had a substitution effect on casual console games, or on console games in which the play situation resembled mobile games. In addition, the substitution effects were at most about 0.1. The substitution effects were small. Our results indicate that mobile games represent the pioneers in the new market of gaming at least during our observation period. But new games and traditional games will coexist for a while.     

Cognition of disaster risk in a tourism community: an agricultural heritage system perspective

Cognition of risk is the first step in reducing disaster damage and losses. In this study, risk cognition in the Hani Rice Terraces, the core tourism attraction in Yuanyang County, Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan, China, is analyzed based on field survey and participatory geographic information system (GIS). The results show that tourism communities have cognition of risk; are more sensitive to hazards (especially drought); have more severe potential damage and losses from hazards; and also have more enthusiasm to adapt to disaster risk, when compared with a non-tourism community. On disaster vulnerability maps, the tourism communities identified the unique “Forest – Village – Terrace - River” landscape while the non-tourism community only recognized the terrace and the village as the main elements affected by hazard. Also, the tourism communities had deeper understandings of drought, flash floods and landslide disaster risks. A conceptual model based on “Pressure – State – Response” relationships is put forward to explore the situation in which, in the tourism community, terraces have a greater variety of functions and enhanced values resulting in the spatial expansion of hazard effects.     

What Does CEOs’ Pay-for-Performance Reveal About Shareholders’ Attitude Toward Earnings Overstatements?

If overstatements were a symptom of the agency conflict, pay-for-performance sensitivities should have increased in response to the additional penalties for misreporting imposed by SOX. Our finding of their decrease is inconsistent with the view that overstatements were an unintended consequence of incentive pay prior to 2002. To corroborate our interpretation, we show that (i) CEO pay-for-performance sensitivities are higher among firms whose shareholders stand to benefit from overstatements; (ii) this cross-sectional relationship weakens significantly after SOX; and (iii) the within-firm decrease in pay-for-performance sensitivity is most pronounced among firms with high pre-SOX shareholder benefits from overstatements.     

Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms

Ensemble methods can be used to construct a forecast distribution from a collection of point forecasts. They are used extensively in meteorology, but have received little direct attention in economics. In a real-time analysis of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we compare ensemble methods to histogram-based forecast distributions of GDP growth and inflation in the Euro Area. We find that ensembles perform very similarly to histograms, while being simpler to handle in practice. Given the wide availability of surveys that collect point forecasts but not histograms, these results suggest that ensembles deserve further investigation in economics.